On November 9 local time, French President Macron announced that he would end his "Crescent Dunes" military operation in Africa with anti-terrorism as the main goal within six months.
As pointed out by some local commentators in Africa, although Africans increasingly dislike the bossy and colonialist habits of the French, once the French army withdraws from the anti-terrorism battlefield in the Sahel region, the anti-terrorism situation in Africa, which is already in dire straits, will undoubtedly change. To add insult to injury.
Especially in Somalia in the Horn of Africa, a series of suicide car bombings occurred in its capital, Mogadishu, on October 29. Many people called it a "terrorist weekend" - this terrorist attack killed more than 100 people and injured more than 300. , the deadliest terrorist attack in East Africa in the past five years.
In addition to countries around the Sahel and Eastern Africa, Central and Southern Africa are also experiencing turmoil. As major powers are overwhelmed with self-care, may Africa usher in a more "horrible" tomorrow?
France falls on 'Crescent Dunes'
The predecessor of Operation Crescent Dunes was Operation Serval which began in January 2013. In 2012, North African and West African fundamentalist organizations such as the "Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb" (AQIM) jointly provoked civil strife in the West African country Mali and once established "Azawa Germany". France mobilized French troops stationed in Chad, Central Africa, Niger, and Côte d'Ivoire, and mobilized a large number of land and air forces from the mainland to defeat "Azawa Germany" in just a few months.
But the terrorist organization was defeated. In July 2014, France announced the end of "Operation Serval" and replaced it with the "Crescent Dunes" joint anti-terrorism operation between France and five countries in the Sahel region. The operation headquarters is located in the capital of Chad. n'djamena.
After February 2021, the French army almost stopped all military operations in Mali, and withdrew all French troops stationed in Mali in August this year. The French troops in the "Crescent Dunes" were concentrated in Chad and Niger.
After the "Crescent Dunes" operation ends next year, about 3,000 French troops will continue to stay in Chad and Niger, mainly engaged in auxiliary services such as military training.
Looking back at history, France once occupied the largest colony in Africa by total area, and through frequent use of force in the post-colonial era, it once became the most influential foreign country in Africa. However, time has passed, and with the changes in the French economic structure, the value of the African market has relatively declined for France. However, in order to maintain the dignity of the "African Gendarmerie", France has carried a heavy burden and "provoked" many African illegal immigrants.
Therefore, Macron hopes to "exchange empty words for benefits", that is, to apologize to African countries verbally for the crimes of the French colonial era, in exchange for the latter agreeing to "control" the export of illegal immigrants and reduce military support and financial assistance from France.
In the past year, among the five host countries of the "Crescent Dunes", four countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad) have become tense with France, which interferes in their internal affairs. Mali turned to the Russian-backed "Wagner" mercenary group, while anti-French demonstrations continued to break out in Burkina Faso and Niger.
France's substantial reduction of its military presence in Africa is a product of this background.
grim current situation
A few days ago, the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Amina Mohamed, pointed out in a statement to the Security Council that terrorists and violent extremists are stepping up their attacks across the African continent, and have extended to countries along the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa that were less affected before.
The Under-Secretary-General stated that since most African terrorist armed forces are deeply influenced by fundamentalist ideology, the core of their ideology is discrimination and enslavement of women. Therefore, in recent years in West African countries, women and girls have borne the brunt of insecurity and inequality. In many places, they were kidnapped, sexually assaulted, even possessed and sold. Even if they survived, they had to hide. Many people lost their freedom to work and go to school.
Macron hopes to "exchange empty words for benefits", that is, he will not hesitate to verbally apologize to African countries for the crimes of the French colonial era, in exchange for the latter agreeing to "control" the export of illegal immigrants and reduce military support and financial assistance from France.
Amina Mohamed said that under the attack of various countries, terrorist armed forces have begun to adopt more tactics, such as acting as armed forces in countries such as Nigeria, Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Niger recently; Online social platforms connect with each other, raise funds and equipment, and spread hatred and misinformation; they are very good at "keeping up with current events". In the past half a year, many African terrorist organizations have used intermediaries to take advantage of the conflicts in resource allocation between communities caused by climate change , and people's anxieties about hunger and food insecurity sow discord and sell them.
A report released by the US Department of Defense in August this year stated that in the past 10 years, terrorist violence driven by fundamentalism in Africa has increased by an astonishing 300%, and the trend is accelerating.
According to the "Global Terrorism Index Report" released in March this year, the four countries (Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Democratic Republic of Congo) that have increased the number of deaths due to terrorism are all in Africa, and the first three are in Africa. It is a country in the Western Sahel. According to the report, a total of 7,142 people will die from terrorist attacks in 2021, a slight decrease of 1.2% year-on-year, and there will be 5,226 terrorist attacks, which is roughly the same as the previous year. 48% of the victims of terrorist attacks live in sub-Saharan African countries.
In Mozambique, a heavily indebted and poor country in southeastern Africa, the five-year insurgency has attracted the intervention of the extremist organization "Islamic State". Especially in March 2021, dozens of people were killed in a terrorist attack on a hotel in the town of Palma, Cabo Delgado province in the north of the country.
Even South Africa, which is traditionally considered to have nothing to do with fundamentalist terrorism, is showing signs of danger. A few days ago, it was reported that there is conclusive evidence that "Islamic State" brokers are frequently operating in South Africa, providing "technical, financial or material support" to the organization. The rumors that spread like wildfire triggered strong reactions in South Africa and abroad. On November 9, South African Minister of National Security Gumbele had to issue a statement, saying that South Africa "will never allow its territory to be used to fund terrorism in its own country or in other countries."
horror zone
Africa has two traditional "terror zones": Somalia and its surroundings; and the Western Sahel.
Since the Al-Shabab declared its allegiance to Al Qaeda in 2012, the country has fallen into a long-term civil war, division and anarchy. The capital Mogadishu was once occupied, and neighboring countries such as Kenya and Uganda have also suffered. In the West Sahel region, AQIM, the "Islamic Defender", "Islamic Sentinel", and the Masina Liberation Front of the "Al Qaeda" system are the most rampant, and the "Boko Haram" where the bandit leader Xie Kao died of internal strife is also lingering.
Somalia's "terrorist attack record" was set on October 14, 2017: a suicide truck full of high explosives exploded among the crowd, killing 512 people. The attack was carried out by the Somali al-Shabaab. Recently, the organization has frequently launched terrorist attacks under the pretext of opposing modern education. In August this year, the group launched repeated attacks on the Hayadi Hotel in Mogadishu for 30 hours, killing at least 21 people and injuring 117 others.
Paris, France, February 17, 2022. (From left) European Council President Charles Michel, Senegalese President Macky Sall, French President Emmanuel Macron, Ghanaian President Nana Afko-Addo attend a meeting in France Participation in a press conference on Sahel affairs
Due to the strengthening of anti-terrorism efforts in various countries, extremist organizations such as the "Islamic State of the Greater Sahara", "Islamic Defender" and "Islamic Sentinel" announced in March 2017 that they would "shelve disputes" and set up a coordinated cross-regional and cross-factional terrorist organization. The alliance-"Supporting Islam and Muslim Organization" (GSIM) has brought together "Al Qaeda", "Islamic State" and the three major local fundamentalist terrorist organizations in the entire Sahel region. The surge in terrorist violence in Africa since 2019 has been overwhelmingly linked to this coalition.
Mali and Burkina Faso have become the hottest terrorist zones in Africa in the past two years. During the year from October 2021 to October 2022, there will be more than 1,000 terrorist attacks in the two places, killing more than 4,000 people. The French newspaper Le Figaro estimates that about 40% of Burkina Faso's territory and about 50% of Mali's territory are controlled by various terrorist organizations and "local snakes".
At the beginning of this year, there were several massacres of villagers planned by the "Islamic State" terrorist armed forces in northeastern Mali, resulting in the death of hundreds of people.
Somalia's "terrorist attack record" was set on October 14, 2017: a suicide truck full of high explosives exploded among the crowd, killing 512 people.
In Burkina Faso, less than a week after the coup leader Traore took office as transitional president on October 10, there was a terrorist attack that killed 13 soldiers and two support staff; The attack on a commercial convoy escorted by heavy troops, resulting in the death of at least 11 soldiers and the death or disappearance of more than 50 civilians, even alarmed the Secretary-General of the United Nations Guterres; At least 138 people were killed, almost all of whom were innocent civilians, including many women and children.
The situation in Niger is no different. On October 4, 2017, the "Tongo Tongo Ambush" that resulted in the deaths of 4 American "Delta" special forces soldiers and 5 Nigerien soldiers was won by a terrorist organization that ambushed American special forces with almost equal strength and obvious equipment advantages The classic battle example has so far made European and American anti-terrorism experts turn pale; recently, there have been many incidents of French soldiers being ambushed in the country.
no flies bite seamless eggs
Ahmadou Abdullah, former foreign minister of Mauritania and former UN representative in West Africa and Somalia, pointed out that Somalia and the Sahel region have become the hardest hit areas of terrorism. The root cause is that there are serious comprehensive problems in these regions, including political instability, Poor social governance, deteriorating economic situation, hunger and sharp ethnic conflicts.
In Somalia, the situation has improved in recent years as the transitional government has gradually stabilized the situation and the international community provided strong assistance. However, since last year, the country has suffered the worst drought in more than 40 years, and the outbreak of the Ukraine war has caused global food shortages. Supplies are tight, bringing a famine like never before in a devastated country. However, the authorities and the international community have focused on endlessly organizing elections and coordinating conflicts among political parties participating in the election for more than a year. Stand still. According to U.S. intelligence agencies, the total number of armed personnel in the organization has now returned to 7,000-12,000, and they can earn about 120 million U.S. dollars steadily every year.
In the Western Sahel region, Mali and Burkina Faso, where the counter-terrorism situation is the most difficult, have fallen into the vicious circle of frequent coups.
In Mali, the "August 18" coup took place in 2020, and President Keita was overthrown by the military officer Goita; in 2021, there was another "May 24" coup, and Goita, who once "returned power to the people", overthrew President Enrique again. Many, "second entry into the palace" by myself. In Burkina Faso, during the "January 23" coup this year, President Kapolei was overthrown by military officer Damiba; Ray replaced.
Niger, another "hardest hit area", although coups did not break out so frequently, demonstrations and street protests continued.
These countries were originally poor and weak (for example, Mali was almost divided into two by the civil war, and Burkina Faso was one of the world's most impoverished countries). This also complicates its efforts to win international anti-terrorism assistance—France, which long ago wanted to end the "losing business" of anti-terrorism in Africa, made use of the problem and drastically cut military and economic aid to Mali in the grandiose name of "opposing military interference in politics". , until the unilateral suspension of the "Crescent Dunes" operation.
Imported terrorism has also plagued sub-Saharan Africa.
Traditionally, the North African countries north of the Sahara are the hotbeds of fundamentalist terrorism. The former supreme leader of al-Qaeda al-Zawahri and many key personnel are Egyptian, Tunisian or Algerian. With the end of the Algerian civil war, the turmoil caused by the "Arab Spring" has calmed down, and the domestic terrorist activities in the above-mentioned North African countries have turned underground. However, unwilling to be lonely, they have started the "export mode" on a large scale—it is said that During the Syrian civil war, there were a large number of terrorists from North Africa (especially Tunisians), while other terrorists and fundamentalists went south to the Sahel region and continued to engage in violent terrorist activities.
AQIM, which caused a bloodbath in Mali, originally originated in Algeria, while Sahrawi, the planner and commander of the "Tongo Tongo Ambush" and the leader of the "Islamic State in the Greater Sahara Region", was born in Western Sahara and has been working for a long time. Exiled in Algeria, an "old fritter" who has worked in the "Al-Qaeda", "Islamic State" and the three major home-grown terrorist organizations. Many of these senior terrorists in North Africa have participated in actual combat in Afghanistan and other places. They have rich experience in terrorism and extensive contacts in terrorist and fundamentalist circles. Threat to the stability and security of weaker sub-Saharan countries.
what to do in the future
Amina Mohamed, Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations believes that "prevention is the best answer" and put forward five specific suggestions: First, resolve the instability and conflicts that may lead to terrorism, so that terrorists lose the ability to achieve their goals conditions used; a “pan-society” approach based on women’s meaningful participation and leadership; “counter-terrorism should never be used as an excuse for violating human rights and international law”; leverage on regional organizations; and predictable funding".
However, the above-mentioned 5 items have been adopted long ago but the effect is not good, or they can’t be achieved at all, or they stay at the level of “retreat” and moral persuasion, and they don’t seem to be “special medicines” that can achieve immediate results.
The United Nations has been operating at a deficit for several years, and has long been overwhelmed. Although the United Nations Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali and the United Nations Somalia Assistance Mission have worked very hard, they are not responsible for active anti-terrorism military operations, and their strength and resources are limited. They are often targeted by terrorist armed forces; the quality of UN officials and blue helmets stationed there is uneven, which has aroused dissatisfaction in the local community and given opportunities for terrorist organizations to sow discord.
France used drones to kill Sahrawi, the leader of the "Islamic State in the Greater Sahara" in August 2021, and the United States joined forces with the Somali National Army to kill Nadir, the senior leader of the "Somali Al-Shabaab" in October 2022. This kind of "targeted killing" can only treat the symptoms, not the root cause.
Intra-continental organizations such as the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States are more than capable. African Union Chairperson Moussa Mohamed and Ghanaian President Nana Addo Dankwa AkufoAddo, among others, have emphasized that “traditional responses and old models are not suitable for the current changing counter-terrorism landscape”—they have the ability to signal But there is no "special medicine".
Among the developed countries, the UK has long been "soy sauce", and France is busy looking for various excuses to get rid of the burden of the "African military police". Although the United States has published a list of hype, it actually cannot withstand scrutiny—the report in August 2022 Confidently, it said that the United States has "invested 6,000 troops in Africa and will send American special forces to 17 African countries in 2021." However, the country with the largest number of US troops in Africa is Djibouti, which is rarely threatened by terrorist attacks.
Although the European and American armies have also achieved some anti-terrorism results, for example, France used drones to kill the leader of the "Islamic State in the Greater Sahara" Sahrawi in August 2021, and the United States joined forces with the Somali National Army to kill the senior leader of the "Somali Al-Shabaab" in October 2022. Nadir, the leader, but the facts have repeatedly shown that this kind of "targeted killing" can only treat the symptoms, not the root cause.
Some countries rushed to the doctor in a hurry and tried to cooperate with Turkey to fight terrorism. Mali, the "hardest hit area", introduced the Russian "Wagner" mercenary group. However, the facts have proved that the "Wagner" from high latitudes is a bit "acclimatized" in the hot Africa, and Mali and other countries are too close to "Wagner", which also affects the enthusiasm of France and other Western countries for assistance. What's more, now that Russia is in a tight spot in the Ukrainian war, "Wagner" has to keep more resources in Ukraine to participate in the war.
Abdullah, the former foreign minister of Mauritania, advocated blocking terrorist organizations' sources of funds, military supplies and personnel through international cooperation. He mentioned the "Pan-Sahel Initiative" advocated by the United States in 2002. However, this anti-terrorism initiative has been ineffective for 20 years. How much can we expect from its principles now?
Amina Mohamed is pinning her hopes on an anti-terrorism summit to be held in Africa in October 2023, but African observers of the ruling and opposition parties generally have little confidence in this—you must know that Africa lacks everything, except for summits, joint statements and visions.
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