The risk appetite of global stock markets has increased, and the liquidity-sensitive sectors of the U.S. dollar are on the rise.

 　　The U.S. CPI fell more than expected in October, and the probability of the Fed’s interest rate hike slowing down in December has greatly increased. In terms of investment, first of all, we can pay attention to the staged rebound driven by the valuation restoration of US stocks in the fourth quarter; secondly, as the domestic epidemic prevention and control optimization is beneficial to economic recovery, Hong Kong technology stocks may have a strong rebound momentum.

　　In terms of A-shares, with the U.S. dollar index declining, the epidemic prevention and control optimization, and the support of real estate policies, the non-ferrous mining industry has a good layout opportunity; in addition, the increase in risk appetite is good for technology growth stocks, superimposing Buffett’s increase in TSMC, or It will stimulate chips, Xinchuang Wait for the plate to strengthen.

Boots land on the global market risk appetite heats up

　　The latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that retail sales rose sharply in October, with consumers spending more on big-ticket items such as daily necessities, cars and furniture. After adjusting for seasonal factors, retail sales in October increased by 1.3% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations of 1%, and far better than September's 0%. After excluding cars and gasoline, core retail sales rose 0.9% in October from the previous month, the highest level since May this year.

　　According to earlier data, the U.S. CPI rose by 7.7% year-on-year in October, which was lower than market expectations and fell sharply from the previous value of 8.2%, the lowest level since January. After excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose by 6.3% year-on-year, which was better than market expectations of 6.5%. Core inflation rose by 0.3% month-on-month, which was better than market expectations and fell sharply from the previous value of 0.6%.

　　In terms of sub-items, core commodities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, the first decline since March, and the year-on-year growth rate fell to 5.1%, the lowest since April last year. Core services maintained a high growth rate of 6.7% year-on-year. Housing prices rose by 0.8% month-on-month, and the growth rates of sticky rents and owner-equivalent rents slowed down to 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. After the release of the data, the market expected a 50-basis-point interest rate hike in December, which showed signs of easing inflationary pressures. A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks all ushered in a sharp rebound.

　　On the other hand, the end point of raising interest rates still needs to wait for the confirmation of the follow-up inflation trend. The current inflation in the United States is still far from the Fed's medium- and long-term target of 2%. Therefore, changes in economic data and the Fed's position still need to be observed. However, under the circumstances that the inflation inflection point has already appeared, superimposed on the previous rebound in the unemployment rate data, it is expected that the pace of Fed rate hikes may slow down.

Markets for dollar liquidity-sensitive sectors can be expected

　　Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. stock market has experienced sharp declines against the background of interest rate hikes, and the valuation of the S&P 500 Index has been halved from last year's high. U.S. stocks rose sharply as dollar liquidity expectations improved. Overlaying the results of the recent mid-term elections in November, the pattern of "two houses belonging to two parties" has been established, and the risk appetite of the US stock market is expected to further increase.

　　Although the current inflationary pressure in the United States is relatively high, there are still epidemics and other factors that have affected the economy. However, the economic fundamentals of the United States are not bad, and the growth rate next year is expected to be about 2%, which is still relatively stable among the major economies in the world. Therefore, for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and other indexes, looking forward to the performance of next year may be relatively optimistic.

　　In addition, due to the high proportion of listed companies' revenue in the mainland and the high participation of overseas investors in Hong Kong stocks, the fundamentals are closely related to the mainland economy, and the market activity is related to overseas liquidity. The recent optimization and adjustment of the mainland's epidemic prevention and control measures, the economic fundamentals are expected to be significantly restored, and overseas interest rate hikes are expected to slow down, so the Hong Kong stock market rebounded stronger under the superimposition of these two factors.

　　In particular, Hong Kong stock technology giants such as Tencent and Netease disclosed their latest financial reports, and their performance growth rate was better than market expectations. Recently, the People's Daily Online issued a document giving high recognition to China's game industry. The Press and Publication Administration released information on the approval of domestic online games in November. A total of 70 games were approved, including products from companies such as Tencent and NetEase.

　　On the whole, from the perspective of future regulatory policies, domestic platform economic governance tends to return to normalization. Under the solid and feasible cost control strategy, the inflection point of the performance cycle of the Internet industry is expected to be established. At present, the allocation value of technology stocks in Hong Kong stocks is relatively high.

　　For A-shares, the drop in the U.S. dollar index is good for the rise in non-ferrous metal prices. Recently, the non-ferrous and mining industries have performed better. The international gold price has recently risen to above US$1,760 from a low of US$1,614 in September, and the price of gold has gradually switched to the logic of the marginal decline in the real yield rate of US bonds. Industrial metals such as copper and aluminum also benefited from the optimization of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of demand under the support of real estate policies. Energy metals continued to be tense in supply and demand against the backdrop of high sales of new energy vehicles. Looking at the non-ferrous metal mining industry from various dimensions The outlook is bright.

　　In addition, the Fed's slowdown in interest rate hikes will also benefit technology growth stocks. Recently, the independent and controllable sectors represented by chips and Xinchuang have stepped out of the continuous market, and the bottom rebound has exceeded 20%. In the third quarter, Berkshire built a position to buy TSMC, with a market value of US$4.1 billion. Buffett bought a large amount of TSMC this time and directly promoted it to the top ten positions, showing that he is optimistic about the chip industry.

　　At present, the party and government credit creation is the first to start and continue to deepen. In the future, it will sink from provinces and cities to districts and counties, and expand from electronic documents to e-government affairs, which contains a broad market space. This year, Xinchuang, an industry in several key infrastructure fields, has been fully launched, and we can pay attention to investment opportunities in the computer software sector under the domestic substitution of basic hardware and software.