On October 5, 2022, the 33rd ministerial meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries (OPEC+) headed by Saudi Arabia decided that from November 2022, the total daily crude oil production Lowered by 2 million barrels. After the announcement, the United States expressed its disappointment. Prior to this, the U.S. government had been putting pressure on the governments of major oil producers such as Saudi Arabia to prevent them from reducing crude oil production. On October 11, National Security Council spokesman Kirby said that the White House is reassessing the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. The "OPEC+" alliance of oil-producing countries has sharply reduced production, detonating long-standing conflicts between Saudi Arabia and the United States. This time of mutual reluctance is rare in the alliance between the two sides for decades. However, the contradiction between Saudi Arabia and the United States is by no means as simple as a "production dispute".
Result of oil politicization
Tracing back to the source, the current deep crisis in Saudi Arabia-US relations is caused by the drastic changes in the world energy market. In recent years, three new trends have emerged in the world oil market. First, after the "shale oil revolution", the United States achieved energy independence and became one of the world's major oil exporters, and its dependence on oil from the Middle East has dropped significantly. At present, about 75% of Saudi crude oil is sold to Asian markets such as China. Second, as shale oil and alternative energy grab market share, the ability of OPEC led by Saudi Arabia to influence international oil prices has declined significantly. OPEC chose to expand its influence and cooperate with non-OPEC oil producing countries such as Russia to maintain international oil prices. In 2016, the "OPEC+" mechanism was established, which deeply binds the interests of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Even if the Ukrainian crisis escalates in February 2022, this community cannot be shaken. Third, the United States, as a major oil producer and consumer, has an ambivalent attitude towards the rise and fall of international oil prices. For the United States, if the international oil price is too low, its shale oil industry will be hit, but if the oil price is too high, it will push up its domestic inflation rate. Therefore, no matter whether the international oil price is high or low, the United States will ask Saudi Arabia to increase or reduce oil production according to its own immediate interests. These confusing signals have left Saudi Arabia at a loss, and the two sides have formed a conflict of interest in terms of oil prices. At the same time, the United States intends to influence Saudi oil production, and some regard it as a factor affecting the mid-term elections and a tool for sanctioning Russia, which has actually politicized oil prices. All these have improved Saudi Arabia's ability to use oil to counter the United States.
Although Saudi Arabia's decision to cut production this time is based on its judgment on the supply and demand relationship in the oil market, it is hard to believe that there are no political considerations in it. In history, there are not uncommon examples of Saudi Arabia cooperating with the United States in terms of oil production. The announcement of production cuts this time seems to be a "precision strike" against the Democratic government led by Biden before the US mid-term elections. Therefore, rather than saying that the current Saudi-U.S. relationship is suddenly turning hostile, it is better to say that the long-standing contradictions between the two sides have been intensified.
What made the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States even worse is that the security pillar in the relationship between the two allies has also begun to shake. Energy independence has reduced the status of the Middle East in the global strategy of the United States and allowed it to continue to implement strategic contraction in the region, obviously slacking off its security responsibilities to Saudi Arabia and other Middle East allies. Since the Obama administration came to power in 2009, successive U.S. administrations have continued to withdraw troops from the Middle East. The current Biden administration has made the restoration of the Iran nuclear agreement a priority of its Middle East policy and removed the Yemeni Houthi armed forces, which pose a real security threat to Saudi Arabia, from terrorist organizations. list. As a result, Saudi Arabia's "oil for security" consideration relationship has been significantly weakened.
Value diplomacy subverts "hidden rules"
For a long time, due to the "incompatibility" between Saudi Arabia and the United States in terms of political systems and ideologies, the two sides put aside ideological differences and established an alliance based on the exchange of interests. American conservative scholar Kirk Patrick once said that the current system in the Middle East is in line with the interests of the United States, and promoting "democracy and human rights" in the Middle East will make the United States passive. Therefore, America's Middle East diplomacy mainly follows the realism of "only talking about interests". However, after the 9.11 incident in 2001, the United States launched the "Greater Middle East Initiative" in an attempt to transform Middle Eastern countries with "American-style democracy." However, the reality that the United States is mired in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and that Islamist parties interrupted the "democratization process" and came to power forced it to return to the "Kirkpatrick Doctrine."
However, after the Biden administration came to power in 2021, it overturned the "hidden rules" of US diplomacy in the Middle East and regained "values diplomacy." The Biden administration used the murder of Saudi journalist Khashoggi in 2018 to put pressure on Saudi Arabia, and even threatened to interfere in major and sensitive internal affairs such as its succession to the throne, which touched the latter's most sensitive nerves. In addition, the standard of living in Saudi Arabia has always been among the best in the Middle East. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has also implemented a number of reforms in the social and cultural fields, such as women's empowerment and protection of the rights and interests of foreign workers, but the United States has turned a blind eye to its achievements and has been holding on to the so-called "human rights issue". At the same time, the status of the United States as a "human rights speaker" in the Middle East is not recognized by regional countries because it itself is the creator of humanitarian crises in Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries. Therefore, although Biden visited Saudi Arabia in July 2022 after the Ukrainian crisis escalated, he failed to prevent the deterioration of Saudi-US relations.
U.S. Underestimates Saudi 'Changing Times'
In recent years, as the younger generation of Saudi leaders came to power one after another, and launched the "Vision 2030" plan in 2016, the country has embarked on a historic comprehensive transformation of the country. As a "post-80s" Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad has a "big country dream" in his mind, and has made great ambitions to build Saudi Arabia into a global power. Nationalism has become the official ideology and mainstream narrative of Saudi Arabia, which means that Saudi Arabia will no longer blindly follow the big powers, but will give full play to its energy endowment and become a big country that actively participates in global affairs. After the Ukrainian crisis escalated, the importance of Saudi Arabia's oil resources has once again been highlighted, and the rise in international oil prices has helped Saudi Arabia get rid of its economic difficulties. Saudi Arabia's economic growth rate is expected to exceed 8% in 2022, leading the world. At the same time, Saudi Arabia's total economic volume is expected to exceed one trillion US dollars, becoming the first economy in the Middle East and Africa to enter the "trillion club", which gives Saudi Arabia and the United States the confidence to challenge. At the same time, Saudi Arabia's foreign policy has gradually shown flexibility and pragmatism. In response to the US's strategic adjustment in the Middle East, it has eased relations with "strategic opponents" such as Iran and Turkey. Saudi Arabia has adopted a hedging strategy to expand its diplomatic space in the competition among major powers, and has actively developed partnerships with China, Russia and other countries despite the obstruction of the United States, showing a strong sense of strategic autonomy. The United States obviously does not fully understand the "change of the times" that Saudi Arabia is going through, and if it still adopts the traditional attitude of bossing around Saudi Arabia, it will inevitably hit a snag.
The "production reduction incident" revealed a corner of the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the United States, exposing that the "United States-Middle East allies system" represented by Saudi-US relations has weakened significantly. However, the contradiction between Saudi Arabia and the United States cannot be exaggerated too much. "Security depends on the United States, economy depends on China, and energy depends on Russia" is the basic pattern of Saudi Arabia's relationship with major powers, and it will continue for a long time. In the context of the United States adjusting its Middle East policy and Saudi Arabia's national transformation, although the relationship between the two countries is currently characterized by more confrontation than cooperation, interdependence still exists. In addition to oil and security, Saudi-US cooperation also has multiple dimensions such as new energy, technology, and financial investment. In addition, the heat of Saudi-US relations five years ago is still fresh in people's memory. In 2017, the Trump administration of the United States chose Saudi Arabia as the first stop of its foreign visit after it came to power, and attended the "three-in-one" Arab Islamic countries-United States summit; in 2018, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed also made a long-term 21 days of super long access. These all show the particularity of Saudi Arabia-US relations. The relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States is closely related to the domestic politics of the United States, so the relationship between the two parties may still be repaired. As a global energy power, Saudi Arabia will continue to occupy a place in the Middle East and even the global strategy of the United States.
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