Space tourism has long been seen as a "cash-burning game" for the super-rich. Since Dennis Tito, a wealthy American businessman, became the first space tourist in 2001, rich people from all over the world began to join. In the eight years since, six more space tourists have boarded the International Space Station, at a cost ranging from $20 million to $35 million.
Space tourism mainly includes four forms of weightless aircraft, high-altitude balloon, suborbital flight and orbital flight. The aforementioned space tourism, which costs tens of millions of dollars, is an orbital flight, and the ticket price for this method has now risen to more than 50 million US dollars. In contrast, the cost of suborbital flight is much lower than the former, making it a popular track for commercial spaceflight in recent years.
"China is expected to start suborbital travel in 2025, with a fare of 2 million to 3 million yuan." Yang Yiqiang, the first commander-in-chief of the "Long March 11" rocket and chairman of Zhongke Aerospace, said in an interview with the media on September 17 that the current , China's commercial aerospace has entered the 2.0 era from the 1.0 era, and is expected to enter the 3.0 era within 5 years. During the period, the rocket capacity will be increased to 5 tons to 14 tons, a global satellite constellation will be built, the rocket will be recyclable and the cost will be reduced.
"2 million to 3 million yuan is the estimated suborbital flight price based on the use of repeatable rockets and spacecraft." Pang Zhihao, chief scientific communication expert of national space exploration technology, told China News Weekly that suborbital tourism needs to be market-oriented, which means that To keep costs down as much as possible without sacrificing safety. This can be achieved using repeatable suborbital launch vehicles and spacecraft, but this work has not yet been implemented in China, and the technical barriers will be difficult to break through in the short term.
Reusable rockets are key to reducing costs
Orbital flight is seen as true space tourism. At present, the main destination of orbital flight is the International Space Station, and the transport vehicles for tourists to and from are mainly the Russian "Soyuz" series spacecraft and the American manned "Dragon" spacecraft. "In this way, space tourists can live on the International Space Station for at least a week, and enjoy weightlessness for a long time, overlooking the beauty of the earth. But the cost of tens of millions of dollars is beyond the reach of ordinary people." Pang Zhihao said.
Yang Yuguang, vice chairman of the International Astronautical Union Space Transportation Committee, told China News Weekly that technically, China has no problem in developing orbital space tourism, but its high price also determines that orbital space tourism is still only for billionaires.” game". "Auxiliary systems such as the civil space station suitable for orbital tourism have not yet been built, and new breakthroughs are expected within 10 years. Therefore, the first development is suborbital travel." Professor, School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, China Space Science Jiao Weixin, deputy director of the Space Exploration Professional Committee of the Society, told China News Weekly.
The lower technical requirements and costs make suborbital travel "out of the circle" quickly in the context of commercial aerospace. Suborbital generally refers to the airspace between 20 kilometers and 100 kilometers above the ground, and the von Karman line at an altitude of no more than 100 kilometers, which is the boundary between the atmosphere and space defined by the International Aviation Federation.
"Suborbital tourism is to use suborbital manned vehicles to send tourists to the edge of space about 100 kilometers high, and then return to the ground immediately, which is equivalent to passengers taking the aircraft to do a straight up and down parabolic flight in space." Pang Zhihao introduced that this method The advantage is that passengers can not only experience the feeling of weightlessness that is difficult to simulate on the ground, but also overlook the curved surface of the earth for thousands of kilometers from a high altitude.
As the main players in global space tourism, three companies, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic, and Space X, will conduct their first space tourism for tourists in 2021 after years of research. And the price is not cheap, the first two of which are suborbital flights.
On July 11, 2021, Richard Bryson, the founder of Virgin Galactic in the United Kingdom, took off his own spacecraft "SpaceShipTwo" and reached the edge of space more than 80 kilometers away, accompanied by other 5 people. This altitude exceeds the 80-kilometer space boundary line recognized by the U.S. Air Force and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the flight is considered a test flight. Nine days later, Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon and Blue Origin, and three other people took Blue Origin's New Shepard suborbital rocket and lifted off vertically from the launch site in Texas, USA. The entire flight lasted about 10 minutes. . The capsule mounted on the rocket reaches an altitude of up to 106 kilometers, after which the rocket and the spacecraft are recovered separately.
There is also progress in the country. In August last year, the suborbital travel service announced by Zhongke Aerospace showed that it can carry 7 people into the altitude of more than 100 kilometers at a time, and experience the sense of weightlessness for 3 to 5 minutes. In July this year, Yang Yiqiang said that his company is developing a suborbital space tourism vehicle, and plans to conduct the first unmanned suborbital verification flight next year. After more than a dozen verification flights, space tourism services can be opened to the public.
Founded in 2018, Zhongke Aerospace is the first mixed-ownership commercial aerospace company in China. According to Yang Yiqiang, the rockets and spaceships used for space tourism missions can be reused. According to the company's official website, the current research product space tourism vehicle "Zhongke No. 6" can be reused more than 30 times, with a maximum flight altitude of 100 kilometers to 120 kilometers, and an empty time of 300 to 550 seconds.
"The domestic commercial spaceflight started late, and it will take some time to achieve suborbital commercial flight, not overnight." Pang Zhihao said that although Space X's Falcon 9 is currently the most mature recoverable launch vehicle, it has Experienced multiple recycling failures. The New Shepard rocket was also developed and launched several times before it was put into use. According to the official introduction of Blue Origin, since 2012, Blue Origin has been conducting flight tests of the New Shepard rocket and its redundant safety system. The program has carried out 22 consecutive successful missions, including 3 successful escape tests.
In Pang Zhihao's view, in order to achieve the prosperity and development of space tourism, two issues of reducing costs and ensuring safety need to be solved, which is also applicable to suborbital tourism. "Suborbital flight is the first step in the development of domestic space tourism, but at present, domestic spacecraft have the shortcomings of few people and cannot be reused. The development of reusable launch vehicles can greatly reduce the cost of space tourism." Jiao Weixin said.
According to the official website of Blue Origin, the New Shepard suborbital rocket and the New Glenn orbital launch vehicle were designed with reusability in mind, and these two rockets can be reused 25 times. What's more, both vehicles have throttled liquid-fuel engines for precise landings on landing platforms.
"The ticket price for Blue Origin's first suborbital flight was as high as 20 million US dollars, and now it has dropped to 200,000 to 300,000 US dollars per trip. The main reason for the price drop is its reusable launch vehicle." Yang Yuguang said that there is an existing one in China. The cost of sex engines is too high, but private enterprises have not mastered repeatable technology. If people are only sent to an altitude of 100 kilometers, there are many optional engines; if this technology is to be reusable, there is still uncertainty about the goal of suborbital travel in the next three years.
reusable launch vehicles and spacecraft are the main trend of commercial aerospace in the future, which can greatly reduce flight costs, but they are not the only option. Yang Yuguang believes that space tourism is a hot seller's market, and despite the high price, there are still many tourists who want to enter space. For these space tourists, saving money is not the main purpose, and realizing such tourism first is the primary need.
On August 26, the reusable flight test of the lift-type suborbital vehicle independently developed by the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology was successful. After the vehicle used in the flight test has undergone health inspection and maintenance, it will take off again vertically at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, complete the suborbital flight according to the set procedure, and land smoothly and horizontally at the Alxa Youqi Airport. This is the first time that a domestic suborbital vehicle has been used repeatedly for flight. "This time it is just a test flight of a suborbital vehicle, and there is still a long way to go before the real commercial application." Jiao Weixin said.
To achieve the prosperity and development of space tourism, it is necessary to solve the two problems of reducing costs and ensuring safety, which is also applicable to suborbital tourism. Suborbital flight is the first step in the development of domestic space tourism, but the current domestic spacecraft has the shortcomings of few people and cannot be reused. The development of reusable launch vehicles can greatly reduce the cost of space tourism.
Even if the cost issue is resolved, the safety issues of suborbital flight cannot be ignored. According to CNN, the British suborbital spacecraft Virgin Galactic "SpaceShipTwo" crashed during a power test flight at 9:00 a.m. on October 31, 2014, resulting in one death and one serious injury to the pilot.
According to a Reuters report on September 12, Blue Origin’s New Shepard rocket made its 23rd space test flight on the same day. It accidentally burned one minute after liftoff, and the capsule escape system was activated, sending the unmanned space capsule to the Rocket separation. The rocket then crashed to the ground, and the capsule opened its parachute and fell back to the ground. Blue Origin's New Shepard launch vehicle will be grounded until the results of an investigation into the accident, according to the Federal Aviation Administration, which oversees and manages safety at the launch site.
"This accident just shows that Blue Origin's crew cabin is relatively safe, and even if there is an emergency, there is a response plan." Yang Yuguang said that if the domestic promotion of suborbital travel is to begin, the safety of passengers should also be ensured to the greatest extent. In short, once the aircraft is out of control, the crew cabin and the rocket can be separated reliably and more accurate fault diagnosis must be realized. In addition, if the aircraft loses control and hits people or objects during the flight, the damaged third party needs to be compensated. In addition, the safety of the landing area also needs to be held accountable by law.
Pang Zhihao said that at present, only one manned carrier rocket in China, the "Long March 2F", can achieve this escape and life-saving technology. The reliability of the equipment is 98%, and the safety of astronauts can reach 99.996%. However, to achieve such safety, it is necessary to invest R&D investment regardless of cost, which is not applicable in commercial aerospace. "The failure of the Blue Origin test flight also reminds that countries should have laws related to space tourism as a guarantee to ensure safety."
New ways to play: Take a space elevator, travel around the moon, travel to Mars
In recent years, in addition to trying to reduce costs, foreign space tourism is also trying to provide tourists with a more novel and comfortable experience. "Suborbital tourism is nothing new, and more foreign companies are exploring the moon and even Mars," Jiao Weixin said.
In 2018, the American Space Exploration Technology Corporation announced a travel plan around the moon, planning to send tourists into lunar orbit for sightseeing in January 2023, with Japanese wealthy businessman Maezawa Yusaku being the first participant. It is understood that the trip around the moon will last for a week, and tourists will take SpaceX's "Starship" to go. Maezawa Yusaku said that he will package the entire spaceship, which may cost 175 million US dollars, and will invite 6 to 8 artists to participate in the trip.
Pang Zhihao introduced that in recent years, Russia plans to carry out spacewalk tourism and lunar tourism. The former pays at least $16 million on top of the orbital space flight tourism costs, and tourists can complete the space station exit activities and walk in space for 90 minutes under the escort of a professional astronaut.
It's worth noting that the International Space Station is not specifically designed for tourism. At present, various scientific experiments and technical verification work are carried out on the International Space Station. The entry of tourists will affect the normal work and may also bring the risk of equipment damage. "American and Russian private companies are preparing to build a 'space hotel', not entirely dependent on the current space station. In the further future, travel around the moon and travel to Mars may become a reality." Pang Zhihao said.
In addition to building space hotels, the United States, Japan, Russia and other countries have carried out research and development on "space elevators".
"If a 24-hour 'space elevator' can be developed, the cost of space travel may be reduced to 1% of the current cost, and suborbital travel will only cost 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, so that most people can realize their desire to travel to space "Pang Zhihao explained that the "space elevator" is to build a space station in geostationary orbit. Because the rotational speed of the stationary orbit and the earth is the same, a few "ropes" are pulled between the stationary orbit and the earth, and the crew capsule can slide up and down along the "rope". "The principle of this idea is simple, but the technology is very difficult, so it was considered a fantasy at first. Now through the relevant experiments of light and strong carbon nanotube materials, it is expected to develop the key 'rope' of the 'space elevator' ', but it will be at least another 30 years before it is actually developed." Pang Zhihao said.
It is worth noting that tourists have to undergo special training before going into space, and there are differences in the training time and intensity of different types of tourism. Pang Zhihao said that due to the short duration of suborbital flight, generally as long as tourists are healthy, they can participate in the flight after training for a few days; the training time for tourists on orbital tourism may be more than half a year. Because tourists stay in space for a long time, they must undergo specialized training in life skills such as eating, drinking, sleeping in space, and sometimes centrifuge training, which helps tourists overcome excess weight on departure and return.
"Even if you complete the pre-flight professional training, you may not be able to fly in the end, and you still need to pass the physical conditions." Pang Zhihao mentioned that although space passengers do not need to meet the requirements of professional astronauts, they cannot have serious physical problems. During the process of rocket launch, spacecraft return and space life, old diseases may relapse or even new ones may be induced.
Driven by policy support, capital blessing and market demand, China's commercial aerospace has developed rapidly in recent years. According to iiMedia Research, the scale of China's commercial aerospace market has maintained rapid growth since 2015. From 2015 to 2021, China's commercial aerospace industry will maintain a compound annual growth rate of 22.3%. It is expected that the market size in 2024 is expected to reach 2.3 trillion yuan.
"By 2027 at the latest, the 'spring' of China's commercial aerospace will come." Yang Yiqiang said in a recent interview with the media that the launch vehicle will enter the stage of high-density launch and realize the recovery and reuse of low-cost large-scale liquid rockets. The navigation and positioning, navigation enhancement, low-orbit Internet and other supporting services provided by the public and enterprises will also be gradually improved. As far as he knows, there are more than 370 registered companies in China's commercial aerospace industry.
"The investment hotspots in the commercial aerospace field are rockets and satellites. Although there are a large number of private enterprises, their overall scale is not strong compared with the private giant enterprises in the United States. In particular, there are very few companies specializing in space tourism." Jiao Weixin said that domestic Private enterprises in the commercial aerospace field have only developed in recent years. If they want to develop faster, they should unite with the aerospace agencies within the system and give full play to their respective advantages, instead of starting from scratch, such as introducing mature rockets and spacecraft from the aerospace department within the system. In Pang Zhihao's view, aerospace exploration within the system is more advanced in aerospace technology, and private aerospace companies commercialize mature technologies to achieve lower prices and wider promotion. This is a way out in the future.
But some analysts believe that a major limitation of the space tourism industry is the lack of repeat customers. Commercial aviation works because people need to travel long distances to visit family or friends, to and from work or vacation, planes replace long-distance rails, ships, cars, etc., which are in huge demand, but not so much for space easy. In the future, demand for space tourism will be limited, regardless of price, unless people regularly travel to another planet for work or family visits.
Several aerospace experts are optimistic about the prospects for space tourism. In 2021, China has set a new record of 55 space launches, successfully carried out research on the moon and Mars, and implemented the construction of the Tiangong space station. "Space travel" has also been written into the white paper "2021 China's Spaceflight" issued by the State Council Information Office, and has become one of the development plans for the next five years.
"With the commercial development of manned spacecraft such as rockets and spacecraft, the threshold for space tourism will gradually be lowered, and it is expected to achieve 'civilization'." Yang Yuguang said.
Pang Zhihao said that although space tourism has certain risks, as an industrial development, it can not only bring certain commercial benefits, but also promote scientific and technological progress such as aerospace technology and aerospace medicine.
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