Renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine recently? According to the OSCE observer report, on the 19th alone, there were more than 1,500 ceasefire violations in eastern Selangor, the highest single-day number this year, and a large number of people were evacuated to Russia. At the moment when the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, relevant parties in the United States, Europe, Russia and Ukraine are using international multilateral mechanisms to play games and seek to maximize their own interests.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed a core point of view at the Munich Security Conference on the 19th: The West pursues a policy of "appeasement" towards Russia, making Ukraine a "European shield" in the conflict and confrontation between the United States and Russia. In view of the traditional international security The system is outdated and collapsed. Ukraine has called for a meeting of world powers consisting of permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany and Turkey to make it clear whether it wants Ukraine to join the EU and NATO, and if so, it should explain the timetable to the Ukrainian people.
Compared with Ukraine's "innocent statements" and "reasonable demands", Russia has been portrayed as a "warmonger" and "aggressor" by Western powers and the media. Facing the provocation of the United States and the groundless accusations of the Western media, President Putin did the opposite: on the one hand, he withdrew his troops from the Russian-Ukrainian border and accepted a large number of refugees in eastern Ukraine; "Security guarantees" of the nature of international law provided by the United States and NATO.
Of course, the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be most affected by both parties, which will not only bring disaster to life and generate a large number of war refugees, but also trigger continuous wars and weaken each other's national strength. Therefore, Russia and Ukraine sincerely hope to obtain the "safety guarantee" they want, and the fire at the city gate will affect Chiyu, and they also do not want the crisis between Europe, Russia and Ukraine to become a big model war alliance. Although the EU sided with the United States in the Ukraine crisis and often joined hands with the United States to sanction or suppress Russia, at a critical moment due to the need for Europe's "strategic independence", the EU did not want the crisis situation in Russia and Ukraine to get out of control, let alone see the war raging. burn. Under the double impact of the global epidemic and the refugee crisis, Western Europe already has a large number of refugees, and the gap between the rich and the poor is serious. If the Russian-Ukrainian conflict produces a new round of refugee crisis, European society will be overwhelmed. Therefore, senior EU officials and French and German leaders have recently shuttled between Moscow and Kiev, trying their best to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
In fact, it is the United States that most hopes for an escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and a geo-war in Europe. In Europe, from the perspective of strategic rivals, only Russia can challenge the United States, and only Russia has the strength to threaten the security of Western European countries. "If the United States wants to take control of European security affairs and prevent Europe's "strategic autonomy", it needs to implement its usual tactics of "controllable instability". Just ask, if the EU can lead European security affairs and achieve European "strategic autonomy", it needs to Does the United States and NATO exist? On the contrary, if the United States wants to play a leading role and influence in Europe, it must find opportunities to create some hot spots or turmoil, which not only threatens European security, but also makes this turmoil "controllable" ”, so as to justifiably intervene and dominate European affairs.
The escalating geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which in turn has a shock wave of unrest in European society, is precisely the core of the US government's implementation of "controllable unrest". Since Biden took office more than a year ago, through the following "operations", the United States is gradually realizing the purpose of suppressing Russia and interfering in European security affairs.
First, use the Western media to exaggerate the "Russian threat theory". Such as hyping up the lie of Russia's "imminent invasion of Ukraine", claiming that on February 16, the Russian army will launch a war of aggression against Ukraine. To say the time of the invasion "so accurate" is to use Western public opinion to create a "burst point".
Secondly, it has repeatedly stated to the Ukrainian government on major diplomatic occasions that the Western alliance led by the United States will not sit idly by and the United States is the "patron saint" of Ukraine's national security. Attempts to tie Ukraine tightly to the "chariot" of the US-Russia game.
Third, while creating the fear of "Russian invasion of Ukraine", they took the opportunity to provide and sell a large number of American arms to Ukraine. Since the beginning of this year, the United States has provided Ukraine with hundreds of tons of weapons and equipment, which is likely to directly promote this round of conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Fourth, once Russia and Ukraine go to war and the situation escalates, the EU will choose a side without hesitation and become a strategic "pawn" in the confrontation game between the United States and Russia. By then, European money will flow back to the United States quickly. As a result, US dollar hegemony will be further consolidated, while both the euro and European strategic autonomy will be thwarted.
Although the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis has its own reasons, Ukraine, which is caught between the two major powers of the United States and Russia, is likely to become "cannon fodder". Zelensky's remarks above express the ambivalence and concerns of the Ukrainian government. The US-led Western alliance appears to be strong, but it is difficult for the EU to provide security guarantees other than the US. Although Russia's national strength is limited, its strong military strength and the aftermath of the Crimea incident in 2014 have also made the Ukrainian government worry. Protection of the European Union. However, joining NATO and the European Union will allow Western forces to reach Russia's periphery directly, posing a direct threat to Russia's national security and seriously trampling on Russia's bottom line, which is absolutely unacceptable to Russia.
So Ukrainian policymakers can't bet all on the US side. The Ukrainian government hopes that the United Nations Security Council and major powers such as Germany and Turkey can make joint efforts to ease the tension between Russia and Ukraine and make "security guarantees". This is not only an expedient measure for Kiev, but also reflects that it does not want to rely solely on the United States in its heart. side.
Both sides of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine hope to obtain a "security guarantee", and the author believes that this requires the guarantee of realizing world security. Only by pursuing genuine multilateralism can the international community resolve differences, strengthen unity and cooperation, effectively stop wars and conflicts, and achieve more peace and stability in the world.
