2019 may be the worst year in the past ten years, but it will be the best year in the next ten years. Many people disagree. Unexpectedly, 2021, two years later, will be a prophecy.
2021, which has just passed, is destined to be an unusual year for both China and the world. The new crown pneumonia epidemic is still raging, and the global economic recovery is sluggish.
In this year, many companies have experienced many crises: business risks, trust crisis, policy tightening, high debt, and the "Sword of Damocles" has always been hanging over the head and lingering, and business giants have also They have said goodbye to savage growth and rapid growth.
1
Last year, there were several companies that were caught in the turmoil of listing issues, and Lenovo was one of the typical ones.
Unlike Didi’s secrecy, Lenovo “high-profile” announced as early as January last year that it had started relevant preparations for the SSE’s Science and Technology Innovation Board. On September 30, the official website of the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed that Lenovo’s application for listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board had been accepted.
Different from the main board market, the Science and Technology Innovation Board focuses on supporting high-tech industries such as new generation information technology, new energy and biomedicine, among which there are many star enterprises such as SMIC and China Resources Microelectronics.
Lenovo was previously listed in Hong Kong, and its main business is personal computers with a very mature industry chain. As for Lenovo's choice to return to the domestic market at such a point in time, some members of the public are questioning the company's gold content in technology and doubting its motives for listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
However, Yang Yuanqing, chairman of the company, said: "Lenovo has always expected to be listed in China. We fully meet the listing requirements of the Science and Technology Innovation Board."
In the prospectus, Lenovo listed in detail the company's relevant indicators on the attributes of scientific and technological innovation, such as the cumulative R&D investment in the past three years exceeded 60 million yuan, the proportion of R&D personnel exceeded 10%, and the number of invention patents exceeded 5.
For the listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, Lenovo seems to be confident and determined to win. However, on October 8, Lenovo suddenly withdrew its application for issuance and listing, and Lenovo terminated the IPO review.
Lenovo Group’s external explanation is that, considering the scale and complexity of the company’s business, the financial information in the prospectus may expire during the review process of the application. At the same time, after taking into account the latest issuance and listing and other relevant capital market conditions, it has decided to withdraw the listing application.
This is obviously just the words of the Lenovo family.
On December 29, an announcement from the China Securities Regulatory Commission revealed the truth. The announcement showed that CICC did not diligently perform sufficient verification procedures on the issuer’s identification of the issuer’s scientific and technological innovation attributes in the process of sponsoring Lenovo Group’s application for listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and decided to take corresponding measures. regulatory measures.
In addition to being blocked from listing, Lenovo also encountered an unprecedented crisis of confidence.
Before and after Lenovo's application for listing, Sima Nan, a media person, posted many times, "shelling" Lenovo's sky-high executive salaries and the loss of state-owned assets caused by equity transfer.
This time, Lenovo responded quickly, saying that the equity transfer was legal and compliant, and the value preservation and appreciation of state-owned assets had been realized. Caijing also commented, saying that in order to boost the confidence of entrepreneurs, the restructuring of state-owned enterprises and property rights reform have already been settled, and it is not advisable to hype the so-called historical issues.
Over time, the controversy gradually subsided. However, Lenovo, which started as a national enterprise in the early years, should reflect more: from the "Huawei voting gate" to the collapse of the STAR Market, from the sky-high executive wages to the loss of state-owned assets, why is it not someone else who is caught in the whirlpool of public opinion, but Lenovo?
2
In 2021, education and training companies will encounter a cold winter in the industry.
The education and training industry was once regarded as a sunrise industry with huge development potential, and many people placed high hopes on it, and the capital market also invested olive branches in it. In particular, due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020, online education has ushered in new development opportunities, and the stock prices of education companies represented by New Oriental and TAL have hit record highs.
According to statistics, in 2020 alone, the total amount of online education financing will exceed 100 billion yuan, and there will be more than 520,000 online education-related companies. Massive advertisements will be placed on CCTV Spring Festival Gala and New Year’s Eve parties on various David TVs. The track is very lively and crowded. .
But in 2021, there are rumors in the market that a reform plan in the education sector will be introduced at the national level, but there has been no conclusion, and the stock prices of education companies in the capital market also fluctuate with the rumors.
On April 21, the Ministry of Education issued the "Notice on Strengthening Homework Management in Compulsory Education Schools". Immediately afterwards, the two offices issued the "Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Students' Homework and Off-campus Training in Compulsory Education", which is the so-called "double reduction", and the curtain of reform in the field of education was opened.
In the opinion, it is clearly required to regulate off-campus training (including online training and offline training) to effectively reduce the burden of students' heavy homework and off-campus training during the compulsory education stage.
After the opinion was released, Yu Minhong of New Oriental said in the circle of friends that "the era of education and training is over."
New Oriental, TAL, Gaotu Classroom and other once-hot Chinese concept stock companies have also changed from capital darlings to outcasts, and have been sold off one after another, and their stock prices have plummeted. Among them, the stock price of New Oriental fell from the highest price of US$186 to around US$2, with a market value of less than US$3.5 billion; TAL fell from the highest price of US$91 to US$3.6, with a market value of less than US$2.3 billion, which is appalling.
Under the influence of the "double reduction" policy, various education and training companies have withdrawn schools, laid off staff, refunded fees, and transformed. New Oriental donated more than 80,000 desks to rural primary schools, and Yu Minhong also expressed on many occasions that he would lead New Oriental to transform into live broadcast and bring goods. On December 28, Yu Minhong finally ushered in his first live broadcast on Douyin, but there were a lot of viewers throughout the night, but little sales revenue.
Another online education giant, TAL, broadcasted a farewell party to teachers across the country at the end of the month. Zhang Bangxin, the founder of TAL, said, "We made an attempt to follow the trend in a great era."
At its peak, TAL had tens of billions of funds on its books all year round, and the company had more than 80,000 teachers. Once they were also sought after by thousands of people, and after the farewell party, they will pack their bags again. This winter in the education and training industry is destined to be long and cold.
3
2021 will also be difficult for monopoly platform companies represented by Alibaba and Meituan.
On April 10, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed an administrative penalty on Alibaba Group for its “choose one” monopoly in the online retail platform service market in China, ordered Alibaba Group to stop the illegal act, and imposed a fine of 18.228 billion yuan.
This is the highest ever antitrust fine in China. On October 8, the State Administration of Supervision once again announced that Meituan had been fined 3.442 billion yuan for abusing its dominant market position.
In addition to the huge fines, standardizing business operations is also included in this rectification. With a large number of Alipay users, Ali's Ant Financial once became the most valuable financial unicorn. However, for a long time, Ant Financial has directly linked financial products such as "Huabei" and "Beibei" in Alipay, and illegally nested credit business in the payment chain, resulting in huge financial risk exposure.
On April 13 last year, the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other financial management departments jointly interviewed Ant Financial, proposing to correct the unfair competition in the payment business, disconnect Alipay and other financial products such as Huabei and Borrowing. Five rectification comments.
In response, Ant Financial began to choose to actively "slim down":
On November 7, Alipay's product "Beibei" was quietly renamed "Credit Loan", and it was clearly provided by banks, and the brand isolation work was officially launched; It will officially stop running after a month... and Ant Financial is implementing the rectification requirements one by one.
The punishments for Ali and Meituan actually have early warning signs.
In December 2020, a high-level Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting proposed for the first time "strengthening anti-monopoly to prevent the disorderly expansion of capital", and CCTV, Xinhua News Agency and other official media have followed up reports.
Intensive voices from the government level clearly indicate that the supervision of platform companies and monopoly enterprises will be strengthened in the next few years.
On October 29, the State Administration for Market Regulation organized the drafting of the "Guidelines for Implementing Subject Responsibilities on Internet Platforms" and publicly solicited opinions from the public. There are 35 articles in the "Guide", which regulate Internet platform operators in terms of data management, data security, anti-monopoly, and anti-unfair competition. Once this document is officially passed, the platform company will usher in a huge shock.
Two years ago, when Ma Yun announced his retirement, the Internet brought Ma Yun to the altar, lamenting the passing of an era. The People's Daily commented: There is no era of Jack Ma, only Jack Ma of the era. Looking at this comment again now, the words are still in my ears and meaningful.
4
The liquidity crisis has also become more and more widespread in the past year.
At the end of October last year, Suning.com announced its financial report for the third quarter of 2021, which mentioned, "The third quarter of 2021 is the most difficult period in the 30-year development of Suning.com, and we have encountered unprecedented difficulties."
The financial report also shows that in the third quarter, Suning.com achieved operating income of 21.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64%, and its net loss was as high as 4.116 billion yuan, which is eye-popping.
Then set the time hand back. On July 5, a new fund established by Jiangsu Province and Nanjing City in conjunction with Alibaba, Haier, Midea, TCL, Xiaomi, etc. obtained a 16.96% stake in Suning Tesco, valued at 8.83 billion yuan. After the equity transfer is completed, Suning.com will have no controlling shareholder or actual controller.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, Suning.com has transferred its equity many times, looking for funds to invest in it. Zhang Jindong, who founded Suning, can only watch the equity diluted a little bit and is unable to recover.
An interesting detail is that in September 2020, Suning converted its 20 billion debt to Evergrande into ordinary shares and promised to hold it for a long time. As a result, in 2021, both Suning and Evergrande fell into debt crisis.
Half of the history of retail in China is about Suning. Suning used to be a monopoly giant in the "store era", and it was all-powerful. Now it has experienced the darkest moment, regrettably falling behind, and a legend of a generation is almost a thing of the past.
