After German Chancellor Angela Merkel left politics, China appears to have placed its hopes on France. Beijing gradually turned its attention from Berlin to Paris, hoping that French President Emmanuel Macron would show the political courage to lead the difficult China-EU relations out of the trough.
Macron's dispatch of his foreign affairs adviser Bona to China at the start of the new year may have ignited hope in Beijing. Boehner is not an ordinary person. He is the third core member of President Macron's "private office" and the right-hand man of the president's foreign affairs and security affairs.
It is indeed an unusual move for Macron to send his "diplomatic strategist" to China at the beginning of the new year. It is incompatible with the current confrontation between the United States and Russia on European security and stability, which is currently raging in Europe, and it deviates from the main focus of the EU's current foreign policy. What to do: De-escalate tensions in Ukraine.
Macron either has no hope at all about the US-Russian talks, and doesn't want his key diplomatic advisers to waste time on this issue; or he is trying to find a way to be unique, when everyone is concerned about whether Russia will invade Ukraine and whether the United States will succumb to it. Putin's "maximum pressure" extended the strategic tentacles of France and even the European Union to the Asia-Pacific.
According to the news officially released by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs late at night on January 13, Bona came to China this time to co-chair the 22nd China-France Strategic Dialogue with State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wuxi, Jiangsu. But a careful analysis of China's briefing shows that the focus of this "bilateral strategic dialogue" is not "China-France bilateral relations", but "China-EU bilateral relations".
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed that the two sides had "long-term in-depth communication" and "shared their expectation to play the exemplary role of Sino-French relations in Sino-European relations, and to take the opportunity of France's holding the rotating presidency of the EU to promote the healthy and stable development of Sino-French and Sino-European relations." .
Obviously, Beijing attaches great importance to the status of the French EU rotating presidency this year, and has high hopes for Paris. It hopes to "take the important consensus of the two heads of state as a guide and serve the diplomacy of the heads of state as the top priority", "to make a good start for China-France relations and for China-EU relations." The relationship is off to a good start."
In order to emphasize Beijing's ardent expectations for France's rotating EU presidency in the next six months, Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan also personally came forward and met Bona by video at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing. He didn't seem to talk much about Boehner, but focused the conversation on Sino-European relations.
Wang Qishan told Bona that he liked the "successful experience" of "harmony but different" in EU construction, and hoped that this experience could also "become a guiding principle for China-EU relations." The Chinese Vice President made no secret of his expectation that during France's rotating presidency, France would "lead the EU to adhere to a correct understanding of China, develop its relations with China independently and carry out cooperation with China, and put a positive mark on the development of China-EU relations".
In addition to Wang Qishan and Wang Yi, Bona also held a video conference with Liu He, whom President Xi Jinping called "he is very important to me." This series of high-profile arrangements revealed a clear message: Beijing is very concerned about China-EU relations and strongly hopes that Paris will make a difference in improving China-EU relations in the coming months.
Bona should feel the pressure from Beijing, but at the same time, he has received many promises of practical cooperation from Beijing. The information disclosed publicly by Beijing alone includes cooperation in the fields of aerospace, agricultural products, nuclear energy, tripartite markets, green, big data and cloud computing, which France is particularly interested in.
Paris should feel that she has been defined by Beijing as a "European leader" in promoting China-EU cooperation in the future. The question is, is Paris capable and interested in leading European policy toward China to a new world?
In terms of motivation, France under Macron should not refuse Beijing's invitation. Today's France has very little room to play on the world political stage. The move of the United States to establish the AUKUS defense alliance with the United Kingdom and Australia behind France's back not only took away nearly 60 billion US dollars of conventional submarine business from France, but also excluded France from the Anglo-Saxon group, in fact, reduced France to the Western alliance. "Second Class Member".
Paris has also been "honorably isolated" by its allies in its Russia policy. Since Macron came to power, his government has always firmly believed that if Europe wants to regain its prominence on the world political stage, it must first have no worries about security issues; Agree with Russia on the future security structure of Europe.
In other words, Macron has always maintained that the security of Europe can only be achieved by joining forces with Russia and on the basis of respecting Russia's security demands rather than going against Russia's will. Detente with Russia, seeking a mutually acceptable minimum common denominator in the security interests of Russia and the EU, is the first prescription of the Macron government to rebuild the European security structure.
However, Macron's Russia policy has been neglected in the Western camp, and its followers are few and far between. Not only did the United States stand on the sidelines, but even Germany, which has always sought to advance and retreat with France, only showed limited understanding and support. Eastern European countries within the EU even regard France's strategic thinking towards Russia as a dangerous plan to fuel Moscow's "arrogance" and try to avoid it as much as possible.
Against this backdrop, France has no choice but to turn its attention to the Asia-Pacific region. What's more, Beijing has extended an olive branch to her very clearly this time. In fact, there are very few in the world where France currently feels the respect and appreciation for her like China, which Bona may have to admit.
Wang Yi told Bona that Beijing believes that France, like China, is a "global power" and "shoulders important international responsibilities" as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. These words probably touched the hearts of Macron and his followers. Among the Chinese, Paris has received the respect and appreciation of a big country, which she has not felt from her allies for a long time.
Macron certainly would not be so naive and bewitched by the "language offensive". He wants to see what benefits Beijing can bring him. Judging from the information released so far, the market share of "Airbus" in China has increased, the cooperation in space launch and space exploration has been refined, the French agricultural products and food have been further deepened in the Chinese market, and cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, especially the first The sharing of five generations of nuclear energy technology is something that France has at its fingertips.
The cooperation of the "tripartite market" is expected to become a new bright spot in promoting China-EU cooperation. The Middle East and North Africa and the Gulf are traditional French "spheres of influence". Consolidating North Africa and stabilizing the Middle East have always been the core demands of Paris trying to eliminate the hidden dangers of wars and refugees in the "European backyard". At the beginning of the new year, China also invited leaders from North Africa and the Gulf region to visit China collectively to accelerate the implementation of the "China-China Strategic Partnership" and the "China-China Free Trade Zone".
It is believed that it should not be just a coincidence of time that Bona and the others came to China at the same time. A Sino-French and Sino-European cooperation drama may be quietly unfolding in the "three-way market" in North Africa and the Arab region.
However, the low tide of China-EU relations cannot be effectively overcome only by the cooperation between China, France and China in the economic field and third-party markets. To judge whether France can lead China-EU relations out of the trough as Beijing expects, it also depends on whether France can play a positive "leading" role on several specific issues that have plagued China-EU relations.
First of all, on the issue of the "diplomatic boycott" of the Beijing Winter Olympics initiated by the United States, the balance of France seems to be tilting in favor of Beijing. Macron has already expressed his opposition to the "politicization" of the Olympics, which is actually a distance from the Biden administration in the United States.
However, during his stay in Wuxi, Bona did not go further, only saying that "French athletes look forward to participating in the Beijing Winter Olympics", and did not say that the French government was going to send a delegation to participate; Convenience, but not for the French government to come to Beijing to participate in the Winter Olympics. Both sides left a suspense about this.
But judging from the situation, Paris should have no motive to participate in the "diplomatic boycott". First of all, this is a boycott initiated by the United States. Macron, who has always advertised "strategic independence", will not "dance with the wind", so as to avoid the impression that only the United States is leading the way and destroy his "famous name"; secondly, France is the next session in 2024. There is no need for the host of the Summer Olympics to annoy Beijing now and invite a possible "anti-boycott" from China and its friends two years from now.
There is not much time left for Macron. After listening to Boehner's report on his return to China, he may make a decision quickly, otherwise the dignified rotating presidency of the Congress will appear very passive. Government members of several European countries have already voiced their opinions. The Polish president has already decided to attend the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. If France does not make a formal statement, it will be difficult for her to play a "leading" role as Beijing expects.
On another issue that has seriously troubled China-EU relations, Paris also appears to be vacillating. Relations between the two countries deteriorated sharply after Lithuania allowed the Taiwan region to open a representative office in the capital Vilnius in the name of "Taiwan".
But Macron will not "lead" the EU into a trade war with China because of a tiny Lithuania.
First of all, France, Germany and other European countries with close trade relations with China will not pay for the conflict caused by Lithuania and hurt their own economic interests, not to mention that the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not cooperate with the EU and the EU when changing its policy towards Taiwan. Other member states have negotiated. There are a lot of French, German or Italians who want to make Lithuania "eat a little bit more and become wiser".
But France will not watch Lithuania's economy completely collapse under Beijing's high pressure. After all, this small Baltic country is still a member of the big family of 27 EU countries. If Lithuania falls, the rotating presidency will lose face, and if it is not done well, it will affect Paris's appeal and leadership in other major events in the future.
It is foreseeable that Macron will make every effort to defuse the ticking time bomb while protecting Lithuania "morally". In fact, his diplomatic team is already in action. The first is to appease Vilnius at the recent informal meeting of EU foreign ministers, vowing to speed up the legislative process of the EU Anti-Foreign Coercion Law; Lithuania was liberated from "coercion" by China.
The news from the European media and different channels shows that officials in France, the EU and other member states are really starting to use their brains to figure out how to solve the problem for Macron and the EU.
Some suggested that "if Lithuania has difficulty purchasing goods from China, we may consider providing alternative products"; some suggested to Vilnius that the label of "Made in Lithuania" was removed and replaced with the words "Made in the EU" to avoid China's punishment.
Another suggestion is to sue China to the World Trade Organization through the European Union and seek an explanation for Lithuania in the arbitral tribunal; there are other suggestions that are more straightforward, that the word "Taiwan" should be removed from the "Taiwan Representative Office". Put on the word "Taipei", and you're done.
These suggestions seem to be for the sake of Lithuania, but a common essence is "safeguarding one's own life", and do not want to raise the conflict between Lithuania and China to the level of China and the EU to avoid "disaster in the fish pond". This point may also be the best choice for Macron himself.
There is no sign that Beijing will lessen its anger at Lithuania. As long as Lithuania does not change its course, Beijing will not give up its diplomatic pressure on it. Even if the conflict escalates to the EU level, China is not expected to hold back against Lithuania, as Beijing cannot afford the domino effect that could result.
Traditionally, France has little influence on Eastern Europe. How to mediate between Beijing and Vilnius, while protecting the overall interests of the EU and minimizing the impact of Vilnius on Sino-European relations, is a "leader" for France. The ability of Sino-French relations to move forward in a "healthy" manner is a huge test.
If Paris can really get Vilnius to replace the word "Taiwan" with "Taipei", I believe that Beijing will immediately lift all restrictions on Lithuania, restore the ambassadorial relationship with Lithuania, and put the relationship between the two countries "back on track" .
But it is not easy for Paris to make Vilnius "prodigal sons come back for money" without creating the impression that he is a "lobbyist" in Beijing, not to mention that the current Lithuanian government will only come to power in 2020. The ruling period does not end until 2024, and there is no election pressure in the short term. Even if the polls on the Taiwan issue are low, it does not pose a threat to continuing to rule.
Lithuania's situation in the EU is now like a child who has caused trouble outside and returned home. Parents and siblings will not let outsiders put him to death for the benefit of the whole family, but they are also unwilling to "set fire" and sacrifice their own Benefit to pay for his troubles. To deal with such a stupefied young man who needs both care and cutting, it is estimated that Macron can only achieve something with a "special force".
